The “Knocking on Wood” Wikipedia page mentions Roud’s conclusion, and this claim of a 19th century origin has circulated online as the final say on the matter. If you go back to the original, though, Roud’s proposal actually ends on an ambivalent note: “Before this theory [of 19th century origins] can be finally accepted, however, an examination of the history of European forms of this custom would be advisable.”
Bill Gurley says that right now, the worst thing you can do for your career is play it safe
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但2025年，这个核心逻辑出现了裂缝。DeepSeek的横空出世，彻底打破了“算力至上”的行业迷信——其开发的模型仅用2000块H800 GPU，就实现了与Meta Llama 3（使用1.6万块H100）同等的性能，训练成本仅需560万美元。
心理層面的脆弱性同樣突出。武漢大學新聞與傳播學院副教授賈煜向中國媒體表示，「老年人熱衷刷短視頻，與社區支持、代際互動等的缺乏有一定關係。倘若代際互動無法滿足老年人的情感需求，容易誘發老年人的精神孤獨。」極速版App的「賺金幣」機制給了老人們自我安慰的理由。這種價值感的重建，恰恰暴露了老年人對社會邊緣化的深層焦慮。
Фонбет Чемпионат КХЛ